Sustainable demand continue to rise

Sustainable demand continue to rise
By Dr Sanjay Chaturvedi

The world is heading towards a demographic transition. Every year urban areas gain approximately 67 million people, i.e. more than one million people per week. Over the next 30 years virtually all population growth will take place in urban areas of developing countries which is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4%, twice the overall annual population growth rate of 1.2% in the developing world. By 2015, the UN projects, 17 out of the 21 ‘Mega cities’ of at least 10 million people will be in developing countries. By 2030 about 5 billion people are expected to live in urban areas, nearly 60% of the projected global population of 8.3 billion.

In the next 30 years, the urban population of developing countries is projected to double, from just under 2 billion in 2000 to nearly 4 billion by 2030. In contrast, the urban population of developed countries is projected to increase hardly at all from 900 million in 2000 to 1 billion in 2030. The developed countries are already 75% urban. In 2000 there were 388 cities in the world with 1 million or more residents. By 2015 there will be a projected 554 such cities. Of these, 426-over three quarters-will be in developing countries. The United Nations (UN) coined the term ‘Mega cities’ initially to describe cities with 8 million or more inhabitants; the UN’s present threshold for mega city status is 10 million. Currently, the UN lists 17 mega cities, all but 4 in developing countries.

Hence the thrust area for development will be in developing countries like India. Because so many people in developing countries are moving from the countryside to urban areas, population growth in rural areas is at a virtual standstill. Among regions, only in Africa and Oceania will rural populations grow in the future. In contrast, Asia’s rural population is projected to decrease from an estimated 2,297 million in 2000 to 2,271 million in 2030

Housing, however, is too expensive for the urban poor, or it is scarce. Outdated government regulations controlling land acquisition and construction of housing coupled with rapid urban population growth have made land scarce which in turn has inflated housing prices. Estimates from various countries show that it would take low-income households 15 to 30 years of saving 30% to 50% of their income to afford a house meeting regulatory norms and minimum standards. In reality, most of the urban poor earn too little to save any money at all. Furthermore, they lack access to credit from commercial lending institutions.
People in slums often pay more for services that other urban residents and they receive services of lower quality for example, in Istanbul water from private vendors costs 10 times the public rate while in Mumbai vendors charge 20 times more. Poor households often spend 5% to 10% of their incomes to buy water. In Mumbai, it is opposite. Slums are paying less or nothing for the civic services provided by the BMC.